Saturday, February 24, 2024

1 stat proves Jon Rahm is the most sure bet in golf right now

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Ok, Jon Rahm. We get it.

You’re the No. 1 golfer in the world. You’ve won three times in six events this season and finished top 10 in each. Now this is just getting ridiculous.

During Thursday’s opening round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the odds on favorite to win is looked like he’s going to run away with tournament before it really even begins.

Rahm shot a 65 (seven-under) despite a bogey at the par four No. 8. And with that spectacular round, Rahm is now 100 under par on the PGA Tour season since January.

Not only is Rahm the No. 1 player in the world — he’s putting notable distance between himself and the field.

World Ranking Player 2023 PGA Events Score to Par
1 Jon Rahm 6 -100
2 Scottie Scheffler 5 -74
3 Rory McIlroy 3 -7
4 Patrick Cantlay 5 -53
8 Max Homa 5 -56

For additional context: Max Homa recorded his first bogey of the season on Thursday and is still barely halfway to Rahm’s score to par. The Spaniard, meanwhile, eagled No. 16 before sinking birdies on No. 17 and 18 in extraordinary fashion.

Rahm was +1600 to finish as first round leader at BetMGM. He made those odds look silly by finishing Thursday with a two-stroke lead over the field. After entering the week +650 to win the event, Rahm’s odds have moved to +140.

Scheffler (+850) has the second-best odds heading into Friday.

At this rate it’s hard to imagine a tournament where Rahm isn’t a heavy favorite when before begins. But that’s the scary part of golf, isn’t it? One day you look like you can win all four majors in a calendar year, the next you feel like you’ll never win again.

Rahm currently appears much closer to the former than the latter.

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