Saturday, February 24, 2024

2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Bets: PGA TOUR Golf Betting Picks

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The Florida Swing marches on, as the PGA TOUR hosts the fourth elevated event of the season, at Bay Hill this Thursday for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. It features yet another star-studded field, which makes for some great betting value in the middle and bottom of the odds board with names like Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy soaking up the expected win equity. Below we’ll go through my final betting card after my Arnold Palmer Invitational previewClick the odds anywhere in this article to place Arnold Palmer Invitational bets. 

HOW I BUILT MY ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL BETTING CARD

With the elements at play this week, there is a new wrinkle of randomness to navigate at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Certain players may have an advantage depending on when wind speeds peak. With that in mind, I looked to build out a slightly longer betting card, prioritizing players with proven course history, win equity in stronger fields, and strong tee-to-green profiles on long, difficult venues.

In terms of unit allocations for my card this week, it’s back to business as usual for Arnold Palmer Invitational bets, with some bonus Puerto Rico Open outrights for the opposite-field event.

  • Outrights – 3U in to pay 24U each
  • FRL – 0.5U in to pay out 10U+ each
  • Props – 3U in to pay out 3U+ each
  • Bonus: Puerto Rico Open Outrights – 1.5U to pay out 24U each

Click on any of the odds below for Arnold Palmer Invitational bets and the best available prices across legal sportsbooks in your state.

ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)

Max Homa

My Bet: +2500

Best Odds Still Available: 

I wasn’t sure where I would start my card this week, but after patiently waiting for the tee times to release and with more clarity on the weather outlook, the golf gods have finally spoken to me. We will chase a repeat of the Farmers Insurance Open with Max Homa.

Homa has earned the reputation of a California killer, but that may distract some from the success he’s shown on the East Coast. A two-time winner of the Wells Fargo Championship and a standout in the 2022 Presidents Cup at Quail Hollow, Homa continues to build a decorated resume on challenging golf courses. At Bay Hill, he’s finished top 25 in all three appearances, and now enters in hotter form than ever before. Homa is playing at the level of a top-four favorite, which makes for great value at 25-to-1 odds.

Will Zalatoris

My Bet: +3000

Best Odds Still Available: 

My spotlight player of the week, Will Zalatoris continues to pick up steam across the golf betting community as a sensible fit for Bay Hill. When the conditions get tough, Zalatoris seems to always show up. He ranks top three in Comp Course History, already picking up top-five finishes at The Country Club, Southern Hills, Torrey Pines, Augusta, and Muirfield Village. A winner at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, Zalatoris should feel more confident in his return to Bermuda this week as he looks to improve on finishes of T10 and T38 in his first two Arnold Palmer Invitational visits.

Sam Burns

My Bet: +6000

Best Odds Still Available:

No one is happier to enter the Florida Swing than Bermuda Burns, the back-to-back Valspar Championship winner. He caught fire this time last year with a T9 finish at this event, and comes to Bay Hill in even better form in 2023 with three top-11 finishes over his last five starts. Burns is top three in this field in Weighted Putting on Fast, Bermuda Greens, but is a far better ball striker than the other putting specialists in this field.

Hideki Matsuyama

My Bet: +7000

Best Odds Still Available:

If winds pick up and conditions remain as difficult as projected, then the elite ball strikers with crafty short game and a proven history in major-like conditions should prevail. That’s a perfect set-up for Matsuyama, so it’s puzzling to see him drift this far down the odds board. Matsuyama joins Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler as the only three players in this field to rank top 25 in Course History, Comp Course History, and SG: T2G (Last 12 rounds). I love Matsuyama for the form and course fit entering this week.

Keegan Bradley

My Bet: +8500

Best Odds Still Available:

In a week I’m placing heavy emphasis on past Course History, Keegan’s consistency is nearly unmatched. He’s finished top 50 here in 10 consecutive years now with four top-11 finishes over that span. More recently, Bradley has turned a corner this 2023 season, with a win at the ZOZO Championship and top-five finishes at the Sanderson Farms and Farmers Insurance Open. With newfound putting upside, he is poised for yet another solid week at Bay Hill.

Billy Horschel

My Bet: +15000

Best Odds Still Available:

I had room for one final name to fill out my outright betting card this week. And while he wasn’t my first thought, it’s tough to pass on the 150-to-1 odds for the 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational runner-up. Horschel is known for his Florida ties, but continues to chase his first career win in his home state. He showed flashes of returned form at last week’s Honda Classic when jumping out to a share of the first round lead. And he looked dominant in his win at Muirfield Village last summer, one of the top comp courses for Bay Hill outside the state of Florida.

Taylor Pendrith

My Bet: +21000

Best Odds Still Available:

The Canadian Bomber rounds out my card this week. While it may not seem very plausible for the second-year PGA TOUR pro to edge past Rahm, McIlroy, and Scheffler for his first career TOUR win, he brings elite skillsets in the categories that matter most for Bay Hill. Pendrith is one of just six players to rank top 15 in both SG: OTT and Driving Distance, which should set him up particularly well to score on the four reachable par 5s at Bay Hill.

PUERTO RICO OPEN BETS: OUTRIGHTS (1.5 UNITS)

The Arnold Palmer Invitational is not the only PGA TOUR event this week, and although it does have my full attention. I always like to sprinkle a little action on the opposite-field events just to hedge a little more entertainment value this weekend if the API card goes south.

You can find a brief tournament overview of the Puerto Rico Open Odds page. But in short, it’s a week to favor players who either possess plus distance off the tee, or have a proven track record on windy, coastal layouts — ideally both. I’ve staked an additional 1.5 units across the below plays for the same 24 unit return as usual.

Erik Barnes

My Bet: +3000

Best Odds Still Available: 

Jim Herman

My Bet: +6500

Best Odds Still Available: 

Martin Trainer

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available: 

ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL FIRST ROUND LEADER BETS (0.5 UNITS)

Sam Burns

My Bet: +5000

Best Odds Still Available: 

Bermuda Burns is back in Florida with a putter that was already trending on less familiar grass types over the West Coast swing. Burns is one of the streakiest birdie-makers in this field, and although his improvement over the last couple years has taken some value out of his FRL odds, 50-to-1 is a fair price in this field.

Keegan Bradley

My Bet: +6500

Best Odds Still Available: 

Keegan had a legitimate chance to cash as FRL at the WM Phoenix Open before an overnight stoppage de-railed his momentum. This is a comfort course for him as he returns home to Florida. A player as aggressive as he will understand the need to post a low round on Thursday before the winds pick up the rest of the week.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available: 

One of the strongest putters in this week’s field, the South African has the ability to lean on the flat stick to post a low round in these conditions. With three top-20 finishes over his first three Arnold Palmer Invitational appearances, he should feel comfortable kicking off his round on Thursday.

Beau Hossler

My Bet: +11000

Best Odds Still Available: 

Hossler has struggled with consistency at Bay Hill, but he’s managed to post the low score of the day here twice over the last three years. He’s always specialized in putting on faster surfaces, and looks to be in solid form with a pair of top-15 finishes over his last three starts.

Sepp Straka

My Bet: +13000

Best Odds Still Available:

Straka has been on hiatus for a few months, but he looked back to his peak 2022 self at the Honda Classic last week, where he finished top five. Straka is always a threat to go low on Bermuda greens. He should be able to generate ample birdie opportunities if he continues where he left off at the Honda Classic, gaining 7.6 strokes on approach.

ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL PROPS (3.0 UNITS)

Top-20 Finish: Viktor Hovland

My Bet: +155

Best Odds Still Available: 

I really like Viktor Hovland’s fit this week and think his reputation for being deficient around the greens can be a bit misleading when evaluating his fit for more difficult conditions. All of Hovland’s best results have come in windy, coastal set ups, and that’s been no different at Bay Hill, where he finished T2 last year. A tough tee time draw has given me cold feet on the outright bet, but I still love Hovland’s ball-striking form heading into this week.

Top-20 Finish: Keegan Bradley

My Bet: +260

Best Odds Still Available: 

Bradley has been a model of consistency at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, having made it through the cut here every year over the past decade. It’s clear he understands how to navigate this course. And with newfound success with the putter, his game is starting to click with five top-20 finishes over his last eight starts.

Top-20 Finish: Taylor Pendrith

My Bet: +490

Best Odds Still Available: 

Taylor Pendrith impressed in his Arnold Palmer Invitational debut with a top-40 finish in his rookie season. He’s proven to deliver his best results on longer golf courses that allow him to take a driver-heavy approach. With seven top-20 finishes over his last 14 events, Pendrith looks to be one of the best upside values in this field.

Top-20 Finish: Luke List

My Bet: +550

Best Odds Still Available: 

It is comforting to know that Luke List is virtually assured to finish top-20 in SG: Ball Striking this week, given his current form and past track record at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The uncomfortable part will be sweating every 4-footer he leaves for par, understanding he will likely make less than half of those. But, if he only loses a stroke or two on the greens, he can still cash this prop. He’s finished top-20 here in three out of five career appearances.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Rory McIlroy

The 2023 season has shown us that the elite players are most likely to separate in the elevated events, as Rahm and Scheffler have combined to win each of the first three instances this year. That would seem to suggest Rory is due next, and although I couldn’t get there on the outright price, I’m very optimistic about his chances to contend this week. He’s No. 1 in course history at Bay Hill by a long shot, with a win and seven top-11 finishes in this event over his career. He should fare better putting on Bermuda than what we saw from him to close out the West Coast swing. And if the putter does show up, it’s hard to imagine him falling outside the top 10 this week.

If not McIlroy, I would also consider Will Zalatoris, Scottie Scheffler or Tyrrell Hatton as OAD picks.

ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL: THE BETTING CARD

That’ll do it for this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational bets. Best of luck this week with your own Arnold Palmer Invitational bets, and see you on Sunday for the 2023 PLAYERS Championship Preview. For more, follow TheLines on Twitter.

ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL BETS: ODDS TO WIN

Compare odds across sportsbooks in your state, and click any of the odds below to make Arnold Palmer Invitational bets now.

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